Quote:
Originally Posted by ddm999
The Bayesian average seems to be unusually low on Engineer records. :P
I've not played a lot of pickup games, but my average SG uptime is reduced from 49% to 20%, meaning it must be about 10%, which can't be right, can it?
Also:
Average SG kills: My record is 20, with average is 8, must be about 4,
Average SG upgrade efficiency: My record is 35%, with average is 28%, must be about 20%,
Average Engineer kills: My record is 30, with average is 12, must be about 6,
Average kills on D: My record is 26, with average is 12, must be about 4?
All these records seem unusually low to say the Bayesian average is meant to make it more, well, average...
How do you get less than 4 kills on defence? Is that even possible?
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I haven't fixed the records to use a real Bayesian average yet, and I'm not totally sure I will. I lowered the constant of the Class Choice Percent records and am sort of regretting it; Wicked_Clown now has the offensive scout class choice record with 100% chosen in only ~21 rounds of offense played, making it a nearly unbeatable record if Wicked_Clown stops playing at this point. What I'm using the Bayesian average for is not to make it more average, it is to make outliers or unsustainable records not able to be the record holders in average categories. It's meant to make the records more consistent or meaningful, not more average.
You've only played the time equivalent of 5 rounds as engineer. The purpose of sorting by Bayesian average is to make it so even if you have 100% SG uptime in those 5 rounds, the system assumes that record is unsustainable. If the records were sorted purely by the real average and you held the record with 100% SG uptime and 5 pickups played, to keep that record you'd actually be encouraged to stop playing. The record couldn't realistically be improved, and the only thing that playing more would do is drive that record down. With the current system of Bayesian averaging, playing more actually increases the value of the record even if you aren't increasing your real average (in fact, you could even be decreasing it).
The current constant I'm using might be rewarding time played a bit too heavily, but I don't think by very much. Just so you know, the constant (C) I'm using right now is 7. The formula for each record is essentially:
(sum or count of relevant values) / (sum or count of relevant total + C)
I scale the C depending on the scale of the value/total as well, like for things that use sum of time played, I use 7*900 (900 seconds = 15 minutes, or one round).